Paradigm Researchers Uncover Double-Counting in Polymarket Trading Data

Paradigm researchers, led by Storm Slivkoff, have identified a significant discrepancy in Polymarket's trading volume reporting. The issue stems from double-counted on-chain data, where redundant blockchain events inflate volume metrics. This anomaly affects nearly all major dashboards tracking the prediction market platform.

Slivkoff's analysis reveals Polymarket's OrderFilled events systematically duplicate both cash flows and contract counts. A $4.13 YES/NO token transaction registers as $8.26 due to separate recordings for Maker and taker sides. The research suggests proper measurement should account for only one side of each trade.

The study dissects Polymarket's trade anatomy, noting all transactions follow a standardized template on Polygon. Each matched order group contains at least one maker and exactly one taker, creating the structural conditions for double-counting. These findings raise questions about volume reporting accuracy in prediction markets.